Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — Live Odds & Analysis
Live Polymarket odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?": Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100%. 1 markets, $9.94M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.
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What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it
This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at 60 or higher on at least one date between market creation and June 15, 2026; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is currently priced at No 100%, meaning traders are assigning essentially all market-implied probability to the negative outcome. [1][7]
What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them
A 100% No price implies the market sees the threshold as already out of reach or overwhelmingly unlikely to be met before resolution, at least based on current public information. Total volume of $9.94M suggests substantial participation and a relatively strong consensus, though volume by itself does not reveal direction beyond the current price. [7]
What would move the odds is new IMF Portwatch transit-call data showing the 7-day average approaching or exceeding 60, or credible evidence that the data series or resolution convention could change. Absent that, the pricing is likely to remain pinned near No.
Current market odds
| Market | Leading outcome | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No 100% | $9.95M |
Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗
Sources & citations
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may
- https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31
- Polymarket via AISA API