Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Live Odds & Analysis

What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it

This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at 60 or higher on any date from market creation through 2026-06-30; if not, it resolves No. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, with vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch excluded from the count.

Traders are currently pricing No at 73%, implying a market-implied Yes at 27% based on the quoted odds.

What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them

$22.35M in volume suggests a well-traded market with meaningful information flow, so the price likely reflects a mixture of shipping data, geopolitical expectations, and any perceived evidence of traffic normalization. The current skew toward No indicates traders expect the 7-day average to stay below the 60 threshold through expiration.

The odds would move most if IMF Portwatch data show a sustained pickup in daily transit calls toward the resolution threshold, or if headlines point to durable changes in route availability, vessel behavior, or shipping conditions that could lift the 7-day average. If traffic remains constrained or the data stay well below 60, No would likely remain favored.

Current market odds

Live data via the AISA Polymarket API. Updated 2026-06-15. View on Polymarket ↗