{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?\": December 31 Yes 96%. 6 markets, $335.32M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$335.32M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$27.35M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "6"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "Yes 96%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-12-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?",
    "slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
    "volume_usd": 335316156.8461752,
    "volume_24h_usd": 27352771.77765294,
    "end_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "December 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.962
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.038
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 11485013.229155006
      },
      {
        "question": "August 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.958
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.042
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 1602564.5425070066
      },
      {
        "question": "October 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9565
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0435
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 646653.9000670001
      },
      {
        "question": "July 31",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.94
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.06
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 8138311.57427911
      },
      {
        "question": "June 30",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.915
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.085
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 33922585.040476695
      },
      {
        "question": "June 15",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.8485
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.1515
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 60759015.727066286
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Iran",
      "Trump",
      "ceasefire",
      "Iran Ceasefire",
      "Agreement",
      "10-point",
      "U.S. x Iran",
      "Geopolitics"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market asks and how traders are pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket event asks whether the **U.S. and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal** by each contract’s deadline, with resolution at **11:59 PM ET**; “yes” requires language clearly indicating hostilities have ended or will permanently cease. The market is large, with **$335.32M** in total volume across **6 active markets**, and it runs through **2026-12-31**. Current pricing is high across every listed expiry: **June 15: 85% Yes**, **June 30: 92%**, **July 31: 94%**, **August 31: 96%**, **October 31: 96%**, and **December 31: 96%**.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThese prices imply traders see a **very high market-implied chance** of some qualifying deal by the later deadlines, with near-term contracts still elevated but less certain. The steep curve from **85%** for June 15 to **96%** by late-year suggests the market is pricing more time for diplomacy to produce an outcome. The **very high volume** indicates strong participation and active re-pricing rather than a thin market. Odds would likely move most on **verified diplomatic announcements, formal signed text, or clear public confirmation of a permanent cessation framework**; they would likely fall on **failed talks, renewed military escalation, or ambiguity that does not meet the contract’s explicit wording**.\n\n- December 31: Yes 96% (vol $11.49M)\n- August 31: Yes 96% (vol $1.60M)\n- October 31: Yes 96% (vol $646,653.9)\n- July 31: Yes 94% (vol $8.14M)\n- June 30: Yes 92% (vol $33.92M)\n- June 15: Yes 85% (vol $60.76M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://phemex.com/news/article/polymarket-predicts-67-chance-of-usiran-peace-deal-by-2026-84886"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4596901-u-s-iran-peace-deal-odds-climb-above-50-percent-by-july-according-to-prediction-markets"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2058216552869065110"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2044448550189236408"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}