{
  "@context": "https://agentflare.org/schema",
  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?\": June 12 No 100%. 3 markets, $55.47M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$55.47M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$6.41M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "3"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "TBD"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?",
    "slug": "us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",
    "volume_usd": 55471632.98531069,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6411443.812107997,
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "June 12",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 8452724.858603913
      },
      {
        "question": "June 14",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.9995
          },
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.0005
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2540149.207716006
      },
      {
        "question": "June 13",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.957
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.043
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 4279403.219950006
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Politics",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Iran Ceasefire",
      "Iran",
      "U.S. x Iran",
      "Peace Deal"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket asks whether the U.S. will **officially announce** an extension of the Iran ceasefire agreement, or announce a new peace, ceasefire-framework, or diplomatic agreement that keeps the ceasefire in place by the specified deadline. The live setup shows **$55.47M** in total volume, **3 active markets**, and an **open-ended** expiry. Current pricing is highly date-dependent: **June 12 = No 100%**, **June 13 = No 96%**, and **June 14 = Yes 100%**.\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThe volume suggests a highly traded, heavily watched event, but the split across nearby dates shows traders are not pricing a single uniform outcome—they are pricing *timing risk* around an official announcement. The June 12 and June 13 “No” prices imply traders saw no qualifying announcement by those deadlines, while the June 14 “Yes” price implies a full official announcement is being priced in for that date. Odds would move most on any public U.S. statement that clearly matches the market’s settlement language; vague comments about talks, de-escalation, or informal understandings would matter less unless they amount to a formal announcement.\n\n- June 12: No 100% (vol $8.45M)\n- June 14: Yes 100% (vol $2.54M)\n- June 13: No 96% (vol $4.28M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://predictionnews.com/story/polymarket-traders-price-26-odds-us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-d5cfce41"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.actionnetwork.com/news/usa-to-announce-iran-agreement-ceasefire-polymarket-odds"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/all-news/article-893823"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/05/52764773/iran-ceasefire-extension-odds-drop-trump-social-media-post"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
  ],
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
  },
  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}