{
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  "type": "Event",
  "tier": "L2-full",
  "title": "Israel closes its airspace by...? — Live Odds & Analysis",
  "description": "Live Polymarket odds for \"Israel closes its airspace by...?\": June 14 No 100%. 3 markets, $16.24M volume. Real-money prediction-market data.",
  "canonical": "https://agentflare.org/predictions/israel-closes-its-airspace-by.html",
  "category": "predictions",
  "updated": "2026-06-15",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-15T01:19:16.018Z",
  "facts": [
    {
      "label": "Total volume",
      "value": "$16.24M"
    },
    {
      "label": "24h volume",
      "value": "$1.48M"
    },
    {
      "label": "Markets",
      "value": "3"
    },
    {
      "label": "Leading",
      "value": "No 100%"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ends",
      "value": "2026-05-31"
    }
  ],
  "data": {
    "event": "Israel closes its airspace by...?",
    "slug": "israel-closes-its-airspace-by",
    "volume_usd": 16240404.754886989,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1476173.5220689995,
    "end_date": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
    "markets": [
      {
        "question": "June 14",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9985
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0015
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 782153.327126
      },
      {
        "question": "June 15",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.9865
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.0135
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 5432109.656474975
      },
      {
        "question": "June 30",
        "odds": [
          {
            "outcome": "No",
            "prob": 0.935
          },
          {
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "prob": 0.065
          }
        ],
        "volume_usd": 2359429.405134007
      }
    ],
    "tags": [
      "Iran",
      "Israel",
      "Politics",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Israel x Iran",
      "Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"
    ]
  },
  "analysis_md": "## What the market is asking and how traders are currently pricing it\n\nThis Polymarket asks whether Israel will initiate a **major closure of its airspace** by the listed deadline, resolving **Yes** only if such a closure occurs by **11:59 PM ET** on that date; otherwise it resolves **No**. The event page shows **3 active markets**, **$16.24M** in total volume, and an end date of **2026-05-31**. Current odds are **No 100% for June 14**, **No 99% for June 15**, and **No 94% for June 30**. [3]\n\n## What the odds and volume imply, and what would move them\n\nThese prices mean traders are assigning a very high market-implied chance that no qualifying airspace closure will occur by those dates, with the June 30 contract still retaining a small amount of event risk. The large volume suggests substantial participation and liquidity, but it does not by itself indicate direction. [3]\n\nThe market would move on credible signs of a broad shutdown, cancellation, or suspension of commercial aviation across most or all of Israeli civilian airspace, or on official statements or operational restrictions that fit the market’s definition of a **major closure**. Any evidence of de-escalation, continued normal operations, or a lack of qualifying restrictions would tend to keep the **No** side elevated.\n\n- June 14: No 100% (vol $782,153.33)\n- June 15: No 99% (vol $5.43M)\n- June 30: No 94% (vol $2.36M)",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/polymarket-probability-of-israel-closing-airspace-by-june-30-rises-to-64"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/06-08-2026-polymarket-probability-of-israel-closing-its-airspace-rises-to-64-331858223793761"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket via AISA API",
      "url": "https://aisa.one/docs/api-reference/prediction-market/get_polymarket-events"
    }
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  "pricing": {
    "price_usd": 0.01,
    "method": "402",
    "endpoint": "https://cdn.aisa.one/api/v1/access/verify",
    "autopay_hint": "set crawlerAutoPrice=true with X-AISA-Crawler-Token",
    "onboarding": "https://cdn.aisa.one/cdn/guide.html"
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  "powered_by": "AISA — agent-native search, settlement & delivery (https://aisa.one)"
}